Skip to main content

Are investment strategies based on M&A announcements profitable?

Published: Jul 19, 2025
Volume: 23
Keywords: Mergers and acquisitions Asset allocation Transaction costs Abnormal returns

Authors

Marcelo dos Santos Guzella
IBMEC / Codemge
Henrique Castro
IBMEC

Abstract

Using data from the Brazilian stock market from 2001 to 2020, we analyze the performance of investment strategies based on merger and acquisition (M&As) announcements. The study considers the impact of taxes and other transaction costs to investigate whether active strategies outperform indices or buy-and-hold approaches. The results show that market-cap weighted portfolios with initial capital of one million reais and no rebalancing limit achieved the highest returns (21.5% annually), significantly outperforming the Ibovespa index (10.1% annually). We also found that strategies with low initial capital and high turnover presented total losses or considerably underperformed the index due to transaction costs. Our findings suggest that a significant portion of the abnormal returns reflecting market perception of value creation from M&As could be captured through feasible portfolio allocation strategies for investors with relevant minimum capital.

How to cite

Marcelo dos Santos Guzella, Henrique Castro. Are investment strategies based on M&A announcements profitable?. Brazilian Review of Finance, v. 23, n. 1, 2025. p. e202511. DOI: 10.12660/rbfin.v23n1.2025.93423.


References

Alexandridis, G., Antypas, N. and Travlos, N. (2017) Value creation from M&As: New evidence, Journal of Corporate Finance, 45, 632–650.
Ali‑Yrkkö, J. (2002) Mergers and acquisitions: Reason and results, Texto para discussão 792, ETLA.
Andrade, G., Mitchell, M. and Stafford, E. (2001) New evidence and perspectives on mergers, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(2), 103–120.
Barney, J.B. (1988) Returns to bidding firms in mergers and acquisitions: Reconsidering the relatedness hypothesis, Strategic Management Journal, 9(S1), 71–78.
Batista, A.T.N., Lamounier, W.M. and Mário, P.D.C. (2023) A incerteza da política econômica afeta operações de fusões e aquisições? Evidências do mercado brasileiro, Brazilian Business Review, 20, 133–156.
Batista, A.T.N., Lamounier, W.M., do Carmo Mário, P. and Ferreira, B.P. (2022) Mergers and acquisitions in Brazil and economic uncertainty shocks, Contextus: Revista Contemporânea de Economia e Gestão, 20(2), 295–307.
Berkovitch, E. and Narayanan, M.P. (1993) Motives for takeovers: An empirical investigation, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 28(3), 347–362.
Brigham, E. and Ehrhardt, M. (2008) Administração Financeira: Teoria e Prática, Cengage Learning.
Camargos, M.A. and Barbosa, F.V. (2005) Análise do desempenho econômico-financeiro e da criação de sinergias em processos de fusões e aquisições do mercado brasileiro ocorridos entre 1995 e 1999, REGE Revista de Gestão, 12(2), 99–115.
Camargos, M.A. and Barbosa, F.V. (2010) Fusões e aquisições de empresas brasileiras: Sinergias operacionais, gerenciais e rentabilidade, Contabilidade Vista & Revista, 21(1), 69–99.
Camargos, M.A.D. and Barbosa, F.V. (2009) Fusões e aquisições de empresas brasileiras: Criação de valor e sinergias operacionais, Revista de Administração de Empresas, 49, 206–220.
Capron, L. and Pistre, N. (2002) When do acquirers earn abnormal returns?, Strategic Management Journal, 23(9), 781–794.
Castilho, M.D.O. (2017) Geração de valor em fusões e aquisições brasileiras no período de 1995 a 2016, Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso, Insper.
Cavalcanti, F.D.O., Gutierrez, C.E.C. and Figueiredo, J.F.M. (2021) Determinantes do spread bancário no Brasil e os efeitos do Acordo de Basileia III, Economia Aplicada, 25(2), 293–322.
Chatterjee, S. (1986) Types of synergy and economic value: The impact of acquisitions on merging and rival firms, Strategic Management Journal, 7(2), 119–139.
Chatterjee, S. (1992) Sources of value in takeovers: Synergy or restructuring—implications for target and bidder firms, Strategic Management Journal, 13(4), 267–286.
Huizinga, H.P. and Voget, J. (2009) International taxation and the direction and volume of cross‐border M&As, The Journal of Finance, 64(3), 1217–1249.
Jensen, M.C. and Ruback, R.S. (1983) The market for corporate control: The scientific evidence, Journal of Financial Economics, 11(1–4), 5–50.
Mitchell, M. and Pulvino, T. (2001) Characteristics of risk and return in risk arbitrage, The Journal of Finance, 56(6), 2135–2175.